NBA Pick of the Day 12/01/08

Today’s game of the day is Orlando at Boston.  The current line on this one is Boston -8.5 with a total of 189.5.

Boston is 16-2 while Orlando stands at 13-4.  Both teams are 9-1 in their last 10 games.  Orlando plays well on the road and has a 6-1 road record.  This should be a close game, although I think Boston wins it with their defense.  8.5 is just too big of a spread in what should be a fairly low scoring game.  Dwight Howard should keep Orlando in this one if he can stay out of foul trouble.   If he gets in early trouble, Lewis will have to carry the team.  A. Johnson has done a good job filling in for J. Nelson.  Turkoglu has been inconsistent.

Play:  Orlando +8.5   1 unit.

NBA Pick of the Day 11/22/08

Game of the day is Houston at Orlando.  The current line on this one is Orlando -2.5 with a total of 185.  Orlando had a terrible October which may be sticking in bettors heads.  In November they have gone 9-1 and have things headed in the right direction with D. Howard dominating everyone.  Houston has gone 6-5 this month and it seems like everyone on that team is nursing nagging injuries.  Ming was able to play on Friday, but he has a sore foot and has to guard Howard which isn’t a good combination.  McGrady has his chronic injuries and Artest has a bit of an ankle problem.  Scola shows up about every other night and Alston just stands on the three point line the whole game watching.  For Orlando Turkoglu has been in a slump and is due to break out anytime.  Lewis has been solid and Nelson seems to be coming around.

I think Orlando keeps their winning streak going tonight but it may be close.  Home court should really be an advantage in this one.  Give the two and a half and hope for a big night out of Turkoglu.

Play:   Orlando -2.5   1 Unit

Season:  13-8   +3.1 units

NBA Pick of the Day 11/21/08

Game of the day is Charlotte at Atlanta.  The current line on the game is Atlanta -8 with a total of 189.  I like the under play on this one for a single unit.

Atlanta is playing without Josh Smith and Al Horford.  Horford is questionable with an ankle injury.  Pachulia will fill in if Horford can’t go.    Charlotte is without Jason Richardson and will be shaking up the roster with new starters D.J. Augustin and possibly Alex Ajinca.  It should be an adventure getting the Bobcat offense to gel with two new starters.  Power Forward is also still a problem for the Cats. 

When you look at the pace factors for each team, this should be a really slow game played well below league average.  Atlanta is 17th in pace at 91.0 while Charlotte is 28th at a snails pace of 86.5.  Larry Brown is making changes to suit his desired slow pace.  Atlanta shoots at an eFG% of 50.5% (7th in the NBA) while Charlotte shoots an eFG% of 45.7 (27th in the NBA).  Given those two shooting percentages and a pace of around 88, this should be an under play.

Play:  Charlotte at Atlanta  UNDER 189   1 Unit

Season:  12-8  +2.1 units

No Play for Wednesday

It was a crazy foreign currency trading day today and I haven’t had enough time to give today’s pick the attention it deserves.  Nothing on the card jumps out at me which usually means that there isn’t anything with an edge to bet on.  After last night’s loss the season record stands at 12-8  +2.1 units.  I’ll be back tomorrow.

NBA Pick of the Day 11/18/08

Today’s game of the day is Miami at Washington.  The current line is Washington -2 with a total of 192.5.

I’m going with the over in this one.  Miami plays at the 15th fastest pace in the NBA while Washington plays at the 18th fastest, so the game should be played at a league average pace of around 92.0.  The key here is the extremely poor defense of Washington.  The Wizards have a defensive rating of 111.7 which is 28th in the league.  D. Wade and Marion will both play tonight so the Heat should be able to exceed their normal per game point production. 

Miami has an offensive rating of 109 so far this season, so against even an average team they should put up 101 points.  Match their 109 offensive rating against the 111.7 defensive rating of the Wizards and they have a shot at putting up around 108 points.  Washington will have to exceed their normal 94 points a game to keep up and they should be able to do that with C. Butler and A. Jamison having good games against the small interior of the Heat.  Hopefully, they can get to the line a few extra times as the proper strategy should be to take it inside at every opportunity against Haslem and Marion (sore groin).

Play:  Miami-Washington OVER 192.5   2 Units

Season:  12-7   +4.2 units

NBA Pick of the Day 11/17/08

Today’s game of the day is Phoenix at Utah.  The current line is Utah -1.5 with a total of 196.  Utah is still hurting and has some players out.  They have dropped four of their last five and I don’t see them matching up very well in this one.   Shaq has been sitting out back to backs, but he didn’t play a full game last night, so he could still get on the court tonight.

Play:  Phoenix +1.5    1 Unit

Season: 12-6   +5.3 Units

NBA Pick of the Day 11/15/08

Today’s game of the day is New Jersey at Atlanta.  The current line on this one is Atlanta -10.5 with a total of 195.5.

These two teams played last night in New Jersey with the Nets taking it 115-108.  Now they return to Atlanta where the Hawks are a 10.5 point favorite that I think is just a few too many points.  I expect Atlanta to win the game, but with Harris healthy and Carter playing well, New Jersey should be able to keep it close.

Play:  New Jersey +10.5   1 Unit

Season:  11-6   +4.3 Units.

NBA Pick of the Day 11/14/08

Sorry I’m so late in getting the pick in for today.  Too many things going on.  The game of the day today is Orlando at Dallas.  The current line on the game is Dallas -1.5 with a total of 197.

Orlando has really been turning it on lately and looks to have some momentum.  Dallas looked terrible against Chicago and might be a little tired after playing last night.  Dwight Howard is a one man wrecking crew and should produce.  Even if Howard is contained, Lewis and Turkoglu should be able to pick up the slack.

Play:   Orlando +1.5   1 Unit

Season:  10-6   +3.3 Units

NBA Pick of the Day 11/13/08

The game of the day is Dallas at Chicago.  The current line in this one is Dallas +1 with a total of 200.  This should be a high scoring game with Dallas running at a pace of 92.1 (15th in the NBA) this season and Chicago running at an even faster 93.2 (10th in the NBA) pace.  Derrick Rose has a back strain but should play in this one.  Chicago may even get Larry Hughes back for some minutes off the bench.  Ben Gordon and Luol Deng have been scoring well and Nocioni has provided some pop off the bench.  For Dallas, Dirk Nowitzki should have a monster game against the weak interior of Chicago.  Look for Dirk to get 40 in this one. 

Play:  Dallas at Chicago  OVER 200   1 Unit

Season:  10-5   +4.4 Units

NBA Pick of the Day 11/12/08

Today’s game of the day is Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans.  The current line is New Orleans -1.5 with a total of 197.  New Orleans has been a little shaky this year while LA has been rock solid.  The Hornets lost a game to Charlotte recently which shows that they can be beaten, even by subpar teams.

Even though the Lakers are on the road, I’m still taking them and the 1.5 points.

Play:  Lakers +1.5   1 Unit

Season:  9-5  +3.4 Units

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