New York at Philadelphia 10/31/08 Matchup

Current line:  Philadelphia -8 with a total of 217.5.

New York starting lineup:  PG Duhon, SG Crawford, SF Q. Richardson, PF Lee, C Randolph.  The Knicks pushed the pace in their opener against Miami winning it 120-115 putting up an offensive efficiency rating of 114.8.  It will be a much tougher task against Philadelphia who will try and slow the pace.  If New York wants to run, then Philly can play that game as well.  Rebounding is going to be a problem for NY in this one facing Brand and Dalembert.

Philadelphia starting lineup:  PG Miller, SG Iguodala, SF Young, PF Brand, C Dalembert.  Dalembert was questionable for the opener but played and looked very good and seems to be healthy.  Brand should be able to operate inside against Lee and Randolph.   Philly must protect the ball better than they did in their opener where they had a turnover percentageo f 19.3.

I think Philadelphia is going to try and slow this one down and capitalize on their inside advantage with Brand and Dalembert.  If they are successful, this game should go under the 217.5 total.

Golden State at Toronto 10/31/08 Matchup

Current line -7.5 with a total of 206.5.

Starting lineup for Golden State:  PG Nelson, SG Jackson, SF Maggette, PF Harrington, C Biedrins.  Golden State dropped their opener to New Orleans losing 108-103 but they looked to still be playing at a quick pace.  Steven Jackson and Corey Maggette are the offense with Jackson playing the point in much of the opener.  Jackson should have another good offensive night from outside as GS may have a tough matchup with J. O’Neal and Chris Bosh inside.  Nelson wasn’t impressive in the opener and Kelenna Azubuike took his minutes.  Harrington got more minutes in the opener after whining about wanting a trade.  GS played at a 97.8 pace against NO.

Starting lineup for Toronto:  PG Calderon, SG Parker, SF Moon, PF Bosh, C O’Neal.  Bosh dominated in Toronto’s opener against Philly.  One curious stat from their opening game though was the weak rebounding against Brand and Dalembert.  Toronto put up a defensive rebounding percentage of 50.0, which is horrible.  They were decent on the offensive glass putting up a 23.3 percentage.  Calderon is good with the ball and a very efficient scorer.  Toronto played at an 88 pace vs. Philly.

Tough call in this one but Toronto should be good enough to win comfortably at home.

New Orleans at Phoenix 10/30/08 Matchup

This should be a fun game to watch, but I have no real betting opinion here.  Both teams played last night with Phoenix beating a good Spurs team and the Hornets struggling a little with a mediocre Golden State team.  The current line on the game is Phoenix -3.5 with a total of 198.

New Orleans starting lineup:  PG Paul, SG Peterson, SF Stojakovic, PF West, C Chandler.  Chris Paul looked a little off last night, but still managed to lead his team to a win.  Steve Nash isn’t a great defensive player, so Paul could have a good night in this one.  Chandler gets to match up with Shaq and Stoudemire, although there has been some rumor that Shaq’s minutes in back to back games might be limited.  New Orleans shot the ball very well against Golden State going 41-82 for 50%.

Phoenix starting lineup:  PG Nash, SG Bell, SF Barnes, PF Stoudemire, C Shaq.  Phoenix was incredibly effcient last night putting up an offensive efficiency rating of 115.5 against a tough San Antonio defense and scoring 103 points in the process.  Shaq looked great for a change and Stoudemire was patient and carried the team in the fourth quarter to get the win.  Phoenix dominated the rebounding matchup last night, although to be fair SA was missing their starting Center, F. Oberto.  The Suns shot 49% from the field and 40% from 3PT.

I think this one will come down to the wire with Phoenix winning a close one.  The total looks a little high, but I wouldn’t touch it given the offensive efficiency the Suns showed last night against SA.  The Hornets have more offensive firepower than SA and can also put some points on the board.  Probably just a fun game to watch and learn.

Charlotte at Cleveland 10/30/08 Matchup

Charlotte opens the season for Larry Brown with a tough game at Cleveland.  This is the Cavaliers second game as they lost to the Celtics on Tuesday, but put up a tough battle with the champions.  The current line on the game is Cleveland -10  with a total of 183.5.  No betting edge in this one, but it is worth watching to see what kind of team Charlotte is going to be this season with new coach Larry Brown.

Charlotte probable starting lineup:  PG Felton, SG Richardson, SF Wallace, C Okafor.  PF for Charlotte is still up in the air and Brown has said that he will go ‘by committee’ at the position.  He might want to consider sliding Wallace to PF for a few games and inserting Matt Carroll.   Sean May should get the start but rumor is that he hasn’t looked very good.  Okafor will be left in the middle to deal with Ben Wallace,  Varejao and Ilgauskas.  Not fun.  Larry Brown has said he might slow the game down without a PF, but I think that is a mistake and plays right in to the slow paced, tough defense of the Cavaliers.  To have any chance at all here, Jason Richardson is going to have to light it up from outside since the Cavs big men will be all over Okafor and whichever scrub happens to be playing PF for the Bobcats.

Cleveland will go with PG Mo Williams, SG D. West, SF LeBron, PF Wallace, C Ilgauskas.  Cleveland gave the champion Celtics all they could handle on Tuesday and should have much more success against Charlotte.  I look for LeBron and Ilgauskas to have big nights. 

I wouldn’t fire in on this game, but on paper it looks like Cleveland should dominate.  The real problem here is that this should be a low scoring game and 10 points is a huge difference in a defensive type game such as this.  On the other hand, Charlotte has no depth at all and this one could get out of hand late given Cleveland’s more skilled bench.  Pass.

Houston at Dallas 10/30/08 Matchup

This is my favorite game of the day and should be a great matchup.  I’m looking for a low scoring contest at Dallas.  The current line on the game stands at Dallas -5  with a total of 190.5. 

Houston will put the same lineup from last night on the floor:  PG Alston, SG McGrady, SF Artest, PF Scola, C Ming.  Houston showed that they have improved on last season’s defense that was second in the league with the addition of Ron Artest.  They held Memphis to only 71 points on 87 possessions on Wednesday.  Ming looked healthy and Scola was solid.

Dallas should put the following lineup on the floor:  PG Kidd, SG Wright, SF J. Howard, PF Nowitzki, C Diop/Dampier.  Rumor is that Antoine Wright gets the start at SG with Terry coming off the bench for scoring punch in the second unit.  That should be a good strategy given Terry’s ball handling and decision making abilities.  Diop/Dampier should give Ming a physical matchup and definitely more of a test than he got last night against rookies Marc Gasol and Darrell Arthur.

I’m looking for the game to go under the total.

Atlanta at Orlando 10/29/08 Matchup

Atlanta travels to Orlando for a 7:00 pm EST tipoff.   The current line on the game is Orlando -7.5 with a total of 202.

Starting lineup for Atlanta:  PG Bibby, SG J. Johnson, SF Mo Evans, PF Josh Smith, C Al Horford.  Marvin Williams is out tonight serving a suspension.  Mo Evans should pick up the start in his place.  Joe Johnson is dealing with a slight groin strain but should be fine.  Josh Smith has been dealing with a slightly sprained ankle but should play.  Atlanta played at an above average pace last season and had an average defensive rating of 106.9 and a below average defensive rating of 108.9.

Starting lineup for Orlando:  PG Jameer Nelson, SG Mickael Pietrus, SF R. Lewis, PF Turkoglu, C D. Howard.  Dwight Howard is a monster in the middle and is healthy and ready to take the next step.  Rashard Lewis is steady and Turkoglu should maintain his most improved player status from last season.  The key is Jameer Nelson.  Orlando played at a fairly quick pace of 93.4 with an excellent offensive rating of 111.3 and an above average defensive rating of 105.5.

Orlando probably has too much firepower at home for the Hawks to keep up.  It should be a decent game and probably a 10 point game into the fourth quarter.  Just not much of an edge in this one.  If I had to play it, I’d probably lay the 7.5 and hope Orlando pulled away in the end.

Toronto at Philadelphia 10/29/08 Matchup

This should be an interesting game and could provide insight as to how both of these teams have improved themselves over the offseason.  Toronto added Jermaine O’Neal and Philadelphia added Elton Brand.  Brand should be more of a help than O’Neal, but I guess we will see tonight.  The current line on the game is Philadelphia -5.5 with a total of 190.  Note that the time on this game has been moved up to 6:00 pm EST due to the World Series game.

Starting lineup for Toronto:  PG Calderon, SG Parker, SF Moon, PF Bosh, C J. O’Neal.   Moon gets the start at SF even though he has been dealing with an achilles problem.  The Raptors will need his defensive skills in this one.  We get to finally see how Bosh and O’Neal mesh with each other.  Andrea Bargnani will probably get some minutes.  Toronto played at a slow 90.2 pace last season but they were exceptionally efficient with a rating of 110.2 which produced 100.2 points per game.  They were a little better than average on defense with a rating of 106.4, giving up 96.6 points per game.

Starting lineup for Philadelphia:  PG Miller, SG Iguodala, SF Young, PF Brand, C Dalembert.  There are a couple of question marks for the 76er’s lineup at SF and C.  Dalembert has been dealing with a sprained right knee but hopes to play.  Theo Ratliff will likely get the start if Dalembert can’t go.  Facing Bosh and O’Neal, the 76er’s really need Dalembert.  Dalembert’s uncertainty pretty much makes this game unbettable.  Thaddeus Young is dealing with a back problem, but practiced Tuesday and will start.  Philadelphia played at a 90.4 pace last season, but their offense will change with the arrival of Brand.  Philadelphia was average on offense with a rating of 106.4 and average on defense as well with a rating of 106.0.

This game should hinge on Bosh and O’Neal versus Brand and Dalembert.  Since Dalembert is questionble, this doesn’t present any certainty or bet with any edge at all.  Probably best to just watch this one and pick up some info for future handicapping.

LA Lakers at LA Clippers 10/29/08 Matchup

The Lakers travel to play the Clippers after last night’s domination of Portland.  Kobe and company should be ok since the bench kept Bryant, Gasol and Bynum’s minutes to a minimum.  The Clippers on the other hand have some serious injury problems with Camby likely out and Baron Davis hurting with a torn ligament in his left ring finger.  The current line on the game is Lakers -9 with a total of 203.  ESPN is carrying the game beginning at 10:30 pm EST.

Lakers probable starting lineup:  PG Fisher, SG Kobe, SF Radmanovic, PF Gasol, C Bynum.  The Lakers simply dominated Portland last night and the game didn’t put much stress on the starters.  They should still be fairly fresh and travel for this game is minimal.  The bench should again get good minutes in this one.  Bynum and Gasol catch a break in not having to deal with Camby, as he is out with a heel problem.

Clippers probable lineup:  PG Davis, SG Mobley, SF Al Thornton, C Kaman.  The Clippers starting lineup is a little cloudy at this point since Camby is out.  Kaman should play at center and the Clippers are going to have to fill the hole at PF.  Brian Skinner or Tim Thomas could be options.  Baron Davis has said he will play, but with the finger injury his effectiveness could be limited.  The Clippers played at an average pace last season, but their offensive rating was horrible at 101.2, putting up only 93.8 points per game.  They were below average on defense with a rating of 109.1 and missing Camby won’t help that figure.

This game has mismatch written all over it.  The Lakers are favored by 9 and I think they can probably cover that number.  I would feel better about it if they wouldn’t have played last night while the Clippers come in fresh at home.  Probably better to just watch this one that put anything down on it.

Phoenix at San Antonio 10/29/08 Matchup

This game will likely end up being one of those slow paced Spurs classics.  Terry Porter has taken over the Suns and has completely changed the way they play, employing more half court offense and stressing defense this season.  San Antonio played at a pace of 88.8 last season which was one of the slowest in the league last season.  Without Ginobili, they will probably have even more problems scoring points.

Probable starting lineup for Phoenix:  PG Nash, SG R. Bell, SF Matt Barnes, PF Stoudemire, C Shaq.  Steve Nash is recovering from an ankle sprain but should be ready tonight.  Stoudemire is dealing with a dislocated pinky finger, but luckily it is on his non-shooting hand and he appears ready to go tonight.  Matt Barnes has become the surprise starter at SF, moving Grant Hill to the second unit.  This should benefit Hill by keeping him a little fresher.  Phoenix won’t be playing at last season’s 96.7 pace, but they should be able to keep up the offensive efficiency rating of 113.3 since they return the same core of players.  Most people probably don’t realize that their defense wasn’t that bad last year putting up a defensive rating of 108.1, good for 16th in the league.  They gave up 105 a game last season, but with the slow pace of tonight’s game and more focus on the defensive end, that figure will drop substantially.

Probably lineup for San Antonio:  PG Parker, SG Finley, SF Bowen, PF Duncan, C Oberto.   The Spurs will definitely feel the pain of Ginobili’s absence.  Michael Finley and Roger Mason will try to fill the void for San Antonio.  Duncan should give his normal 100% and Bowen will provide his lockdown defense.  The Spurs played at a very slow 88.8 pace last season and may be even slower without Ginobili.  They rate average on offense with a rating of 107.2, but only put up 95.4 due to their slow pace.  Their strength is on defense where they put up a defensive rating of 101.8, giving up only 90.6 a game.

Update 2:50 pm -  Fabricio Oberto is out for the next two games with a heart condition.

The total on this game is set at 187.5.  Given the Suns focus on improving their defense and slowing the game pace combined with San Antonio’s naturally slow pace and excellent defense, this game should easily go under the number.

Milwaukee at Chicago 10/28/08 Matchup

Milwaukee visits Chicago in what is probably the least attractive game of the opening night three game slate.  The current line is Chicago -6 with a total of 194.5. 

Chicago’s lineup tonight is cloudy at best.  Rose should get the start at PG, Thabo Sefolosha is rumored to start at SG, Deng at SF, Tyrus Thomas at PF and Gooden at C.  There are many question marks though since Chicago has Hinrich and Gordon looking for time at SG.  Gordon has missed most of preseason with an injured toe, but may still see minutes.  Their has been some rumor of Aaron Gray getting the start at Center, but I don’t see that being the best choice here.  Vinny Del Negro definitely has some things to straighten out in Chicago.  With all the new faces and coaching, last year’s stats just don’t mean much in this one.

Milwaukee’s probable lineup is PG Ridnour, SG Redd, SF Jefferson, PF Villanueva and Bogut at C.  There are a couple of uncertainties here as Ridnour has been dealing with some back stiffness and Bogut has a left ankle injury which has limited his preseason.  Milwaukee has new faces in Ridnour and Jefferson and a new coach in Scott Skiles.  Last year’s stats are probably meaningless for Milwaukee as well.  The one stat they will have to improve on though is their defensive rating of 112.8, which was worst in the league last season.

This isn’t an attractive game to bet on since there are just too many questions surrounding coaching and rotations.  If I was forced to make a pick here I’d have to go with Milwaukee plus the 6.  Chicago just seems to be in chaos and not really ready to start the season.  Also, given the scorers on Milwaukee, especially Redd and Jefferson, Milwaukee should never really be too far out of this one.  Take the 6 and hope for a close one.

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