NBA Picks 10/31/08

Game of the day is San Antonio at Portland.  The current line on the game is San Antonio -1.5 with a total of 178.

San Antonio dropped their opener to Phoenix 103-98 and should be extra focused in this one to prevent going 0-2.  They are clearly the more experienced and better team.  San Antonio ran into a hot shooting Phoenix team in their opener but still made it a close game.  SA shot 50% from the field, rebounded well and protected the ball turning it over only 7 times.  Portland got blown out by the Lakers on opening night by 20 and lost Greg Oden in the process.  Tim Duncan should score at will in this one and Tony Parker looks ready to break out.  San Antonio should win this one and cover for 2 Units.

Play:

San Antonio -1.5  2 Units

Season 3-2  +.8 Units

NBA Referee Assignments 10/31/08

Game	Official 1	Official 2	Official 3
New York @ Philadelphia	M. Wunderlich	M. Boland	D. Jones
Golden State @ Toronto	D. Crawford	P. Fraher	D. Stafford
Sacramento @ Miami	E. Rush	B. Adams	G. Zielinski
Chicago @ Boston	B. Spooner	M. Davis	K. Fehr
Orlando @ Memphis	B. Salvatore	L. Grillo	V. Palmer
Denver @ L.A. Clippers	R. Garretson	B. Forte	C. Kirkland
San Antonio @ Portland	G. Willard	T. Brown	J. Phillips

New York at Philadelphia 10/31/08 Matchup

Current line:  Philadelphia -8 with a total of 217.5.

New York starting lineup:  PG Duhon, SG Crawford, SF Q. Richardson, PF Lee, C Randolph.  The Knicks pushed the pace in their opener against Miami winning it 120-115 putting up an offensive efficiency rating of 114.8.  It will be a much tougher task against Philadelphia who will try and slow the pace.  If New York wants to run, then Philly can play that game as well.  Rebounding is going to be a problem for NY in this one facing Brand and Dalembert.

Philadelphia starting lineup:  PG Miller, SG Iguodala, SF Young, PF Brand, C Dalembert.  Dalembert was questionable for the opener but played and looked very good and seems to be healthy.  Brand should be able to operate inside against Lee and Randolph.   Philly must protect the ball better than they did in their opener where they had a turnover percentageo f 19.3.

I think Philadelphia is going to try and slow this one down and capitalize on their inside advantage with Brand and Dalembert.  If they are successful, this game should go under the 217.5 total.

Golden State at Toronto 10/31/08 Matchup

Current line -7.5 with a total of 206.5.

Starting lineup for Golden State:  PG Nelson, SG Jackson, SF Maggette, PF Harrington, C Biedrins.  Golden State dropped their opener to New Orleans losing 108-103 but they looked to still be playing at a quick pace.  Steven Jackson and Corey Maggette are the offense with Jackson playing the point in much of the opener.  Jackson should have another good offensive night from outside as GS may have a tough matchup with J. O’Neal and Chris Bosh inside.  Nelson wasn’t impressive in the opener and Kelenna Azubuike took his minutes.  Harrington got more minutes in the opener after whining about wanting a trade.  GS played at a 97.8 pace against NO.

Starting lineup for Toronto:  PG Calderon, SG Parker, SF Moon, PF Bosh, C O’Neal.  Bosh dominated in Toronto’s opener against Philly.  One curious stat from their opening game though was the weak rebounding against Brand and Dalembert.  Toronto put up a defensive rebounding percentage of 50.0, which is horrible.  They were decent on the offensive glass putting up a 23.3 percentage.  Calderon is good with the ball and a very efficient scorer.  Toronto played at an 88 pace vs. Philly.

Tough call in this one but Toronto should be good enough to win comfortably at home.

Houston 112 Dallas 102 Recap 10/30/08

Carlisle said he wanted to increase the tempo of the Dallas Mavericks and he didn’t disappoint.  Houston and Dallas played a fast paced 94.5 game with Houston coming out on top 112-102.  The story in this one was the poor defense played by Dallas allowing Houston to put up 112 points on 95 possession for a Dallas defensive rating of 118.5.  Houston covered the +5 with the game going over the 190.5.

Free throw shooting figured heavily with Houston making 29-31 (93.5%) and Dallas going 28-34 (82.4%).  Both teams were able to get to the line above average with Houston having a Free Throw rate of 36.7 and Dallas having a rate of 33.3.

Pace:  94.5

Offensive Efficiency:  Hou 118.5  Dal 107.9

FG Shooting:  Hou 38-79 (48.1%)  Dal 35-84 (41.7%)   3P:  Hou 7-14 (50%)  Dal 4-16 (25%)

FT Shooting:  Hou 29-31 (93.5%)  Dal 28-34 (33.3)   FTR:  Hou 36.7  Dal 33.3

Rebounding:  DR:   Hou 78.7  Dal 78.9   OR:  Hou 21.1  Dal 21.3

Turnovers:  Hou 10 (10.6%)  Dal 8 (8.5%)

Boxscore

Notes:

Hou:  Ming and Artest were dominant.  Aaron Brooks returned earlier than expected and took some of Alston’s minutes.   Houston made good use of their bench.   Ming played 41 minutes.  Houston put up an offensive rating of 118.5.

Dallas:  Made good on the up tempo promise.  J. Howard looked great putting up 45FP.  Nowitzki also put up 45FP.   Dallas played horrible defense.  Dallas produced 37 fast break points.

NBA Referee Assignments for 10/30/08

Game	Official 1	Official 2	Official 3
Charlotte @ Cleveland	B. Delaney	M. Ayotte	J. Clark
Houston @ Dallas	T. Washington	B. Kennedy	Z. Zarba
New Orleans @ Phoenix	K. Mauer	J. Forte	D. Guthrie

Handicapping Resources

NBA Lines

NBA Early Lines 10/31/08

NY Knicks at Philadelphia, 7:00 PM ET
BETUS.COM		SPORTSBETTING.COM	Sportsbook.com	SBGGlobal.com
Open	Current	Current	Current	Current
217.5 O/U -9.0	217.5 O/U -8.0	205.5 O/U -8.0	217.5 O/U -8.0	n/a -0.0
Golden State at Toronto, 7:00 PM ET
BETUS.COM		SPORTSBETTING.COM	Sportsbook.com	SBGGlobal.com
Open	Current	Current	Current	Current
204.0 O/U -8.0	205.0 O/U -7.5	n/a -0.0	205.0 O/U -7.5	n/a -0.0
Sacramento at Miami, 7:30 PM ET
BETUS.COM		SPORTSBETTING.COM	Sportsbook.com	SBGGlobal.com
Open	Current	Current	Current	Current
204.0 O/U -5.0	204.5 O/U -5.5	217.5 O/U -8.0	205.0 O/U -5.5	n/a -0.0
Bulls at Boston, 8:00 PM ET
BETUS.COM		SPORTSBETTING.COM	Sportsbook.com	SBGGlobal.com
Open	Current	Current	Current	Current
191.0 O/U -9.5	191.0 O/U -9.0	191.0 O/U -6.5	191.0 O/U -9.0	n/a -0.0
Orlando at Memphis, 8:00 PM ET
BETUS.COM		SPORTSBETTING.COM	Sportsbook.com	SBGGlobal.com
Open	Current	Current	Current	Current
193.0 O/U +7.0	190.0 O/U +6.5	204.5 O/U +5.5	190.0 O/U +6.5	n/a +0.0
Denver at LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET
BETUS.COM		SPORTSBETTING.COM	Sportsbook.com	SBGGlobal.com
Open	Current	Current	Current	Current
201.0 O/U +1.0	199.5 O/U +1.5	n/a +0.0	199.5 O/U +1.5	n/a +0.0
San Antonio at Portland, 10:30 PM ET
BETUS.COM		SPORTSBETTING.COM	Sportsbook.com	SBGGlobal.com
Open	Current	Current	Current	Current
178.0 O/U EVEN	178.0 O/U -1.5	200.5 O/U -2.0	178.0 O/U -2.0	n/a -0.0

The Single Game Illusion

I went 0-1 on Thursday night missing the only play of Houston-Dallas under 190.5.  And I missed it by alot as the two teams combined for 214 points.  This is a perfect example of placing too much emphasis on the results of a single prior game.

Houston held Memphis to 71 points in a game played at an extremely slow pace of 87.1 on Wednesday night only to turn around and play Dallas at a pace of 94.5, scoring 112 points.   Although much of the pickup in pace was due to Dallas’ gameplan, Houston made no attempt to slow the game.   Surely Dallas is better on defense than Memphis, but the stats don’t show that.  Houston put up an offensive rating of 118.5 against Dallas after a poor 94.1 rating against a weak Memphis team.  Go figure.

Many of the points in this game came from the free throw line.  Houston shot 29-31 for a 93.5 percentage while Dallas shot 28-34 for an 82.4 percentage.  Any time you get 65 free throws in the game with the teams hitting 57 of them, the under has very little chance of succeeding.   Free throw rates for the two teams were Houston 36.7 and Dallas 33.3.  Both of those numbers are way higher than the league average of 23.1.  And the clock stands still while the points pile up.

The other takeaway from this game is the point guard postion for Houston.   Aaron Brooks looks alot better than Rafer Alston.  Alston simply stood outside the 3 point line for the whole game doing nothing while Brooks isn’t scared to take it to the basket.  I’m guessing Brooks gets more and more minutes as the season progresses as Houston looked like a better team with him in the game.

Early Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups

It is only the third day of the season, but I have already begun to make a few moves on some of my fantasy teams.  Some waiver wire pickups to consider:

Tyrus Thomas - Thomas got 41 minutes in the opener and looked great.  Drew Gooden and J. Noah were both splitting time at Center, leaving all the PF minutes to Thomas.

Quentin Richardson - D’Antoni coached Richardson a couple of seasons ago when Q had a career year.  Richardson had a great game last night scoring 16, 4 assists and 4 boards.

Etan Thomas - Thomas got the start at Center and with Haywood likely done for the season Thomas should get a majority of the Center minutes.  He went 10 pts/8 rebs last night.

Udonis Haslem - Haslem should pick up center eligibility early in the season and looks to have the starting job over Mark Blount.  Haslem put up a 23pt/10reb game last night.  Don’t expect it every night, but he is solid.

Luke Ridnour - He has won the starting PG job and puts up solid numbers for a #3 PG or a fill in.

Marc Gasol -  Looks like he is going to get good minutes in Memphis’ youth movement.  Put up a nice line of 12 pts/ 12 rebs last night.

Darrell Arthur - Wow, 11 points and 15 rebounds.  Didn’t see that one coming.  Keep an eye on him.

Antoine Wright - Has a starting job in Dallas.

JR Smith - Looks to get big minutes and can give you 3’s.

Jordan Farmar - Fisher is solid but old and it looks like LA’s bench is going to get alot of minutes this year.

Matt Barnes - Has a starting job in Phoenix.

Spencer Hawes - Has a starting job for at least the first 5 games of the season.

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